Question 1 of 15
What US model is a widely used deterministic forecast?
Why: The Global Forecast System runs 4 times daily out to 384 hours.
Question 2 of 15
Which European model is often praised for medium-range accuracy?
Why: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model.
Question 3 of 15
What is 'ensemble forecasting'?
Why: Ensembles quantify uncertainty by running many forecasts.
Question 4 of 15
What is a 'nowcast'?
Why: Nowcasts extrapolate current radar and satellite to predict the next few hours.
Question 5 of 15
What was the average tornado warning lead time in the 1980s?
Why: Now it's about 13 minutes.
Question 6 of 15
What is 'convective outlook' from SPC?
Why: The SPC issues categorical outlooks from Marginal to High.
Question 7 of 15
What is the WSR-88D?
Why: The Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler network of ~160 sites.
Question 8 of 15
What is 'dual polarization' radar?
Why: Adds ability to distinguish rain, hail, snow and debris.
Question 9 of 15
What forecast tool measures atmospheric instability?
Why: Convective Available Potential Energy.
Question 10 of 15
What is a 'skew-T' diagram?
Why: Meteorologists plot soundings on skew-T log-P diagrams to visualize the atmosphere.
Question 11 of 15
What agency issues US hurricane forecasts?
Why: NHC in Miami, part of NOAA/NWS.
Question 12 of 15
How far ahead can we usefully forecast weather?
Why: Skill degrades rapidly beyond 7-10 days for specific forecasts.
Question 13 of 15
What is 'HRRR'?
Why: The 3-km US model that runs every hour.
Question 14 of 15
What is 'Warn-on-Forecast'?
Why: NSSL research aims to warn based on forecast, not observation.
Question 15 of 15
Roughly what percentage improvement per decade have forecasts made?
Why: Forecast skill has improved by about 1 day of lead time per decade for the past 30 years.