SPC Convective Outlook Categories: Marginal to High Risk Explained
A guide to severe weather outlook categories, including marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high risk, and what they mean for storm planning.
The category ladder
Marginal means isolated severe storms are possible. Slight and enhanced indicate more organized or numerous severe storms. Moderate and high are serious signals for higher-end events.
The exact threat may be hail, wind, tornadoes, or a combination.
Read the hazards
The category alone is not enough. Look at whether tornado, wind, or hail probabilities are driving the outlook.
A day with modest tornado risk may need a different plan than a day driven mainly by hail.
Planning use
Use outlooks early in the day or several days ahead to adjust plans, charge devices, and review shelter options.
Once storms form, warnings and local radar become more important than the broad outlook.