Tropical Forecasting
How Hurricane Forecasters Work: Tracks, Cones, Models, Aircraft, Surge, and Rain
How hurricane forecasters build track, intensity, rain, wind, and surge forecasts using models, satellites, aircraft, and observations.
Quick answer: Hurricane forecasters combine satellite, aircraft, ocean data, models, radar, and experience to predict track, intensity, wind, rain, and surge.
Track forecast
The storm track depends on steering winds, ridges, troughs, and storm structure.
Models help show possible paths and uncertainty.
Intensity forecast
Intensity depends on wind shear, ocean heat, dry air, eyewall changes, and land interaction.
It is often harder than track forecasting.
Impact forecast
Surge, rainfall, tornadoes, and waves can cause serious impacts far from the center line.
People should not focus only on the cone.