Severe Weather Forecast — Today's Tornado & Storm Outlook (Live SPC Maps)

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Day 1 Categorical Outlook

Today's overall severe-thunderstorm and tornado risk across the US.

SPC Day 1 categorical convective outlook map for the United States — Day 1 Categorical Outlook · Source: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (public domain)

Day 1 Hazard Probabilities

The individual chance of a tornado, damaging wind, or large hail within 25 miles of any point today. Hatched areas show where significant (intense) severe weather is possible.

SPC Day 1 tornado probability outlook — Tornado probability

SPC Day 1 damaging wind probability outlook — Damaging wind probability

SPC Day 1 large hail probability outlook — Large hail probability

Day 2 & Day 3 Outlooks

Tomorrow and the day after — the risk picture as it stands now.

SPC Day 2 categorical convective outlook — Day 2 Categorical · SPC

SPC Day 3 categorical convective outlook — Day 3 Categorical · SPC

Days 4–8 Extended Outlook

SPC Day 4 to 8 extended severe weather probability outlook — Days 4–8 Probabilistic Outlook · SPC (experimental)

How to read the categorical outlook

The Storm Prediction Center rates each day's severe-weather threat on a five-level scale, plus a general-thunderstorm category. Higher levels mean a greater coverage and intensity of severe storms — not a guarantee for any one spot.

Level	Category	What it means
TSTM	General Thunderstorms	Non-severe storms expected.
1 / MRGL	Marginal	Isolated severe storms, limited in coverage and intensity.
2 / SLGT	Slight	Scattered severe storms possible.
3 / ENH	Enhanced	Numerous severe storms, some intense.
4 / MDT	Moderate	Widespread severe weather likely, including strong tornadoes or major wind/hail.
5 / HIGH	High	A severe-weather outbreak is expected — the rarest and most dangerous category.

The probability maps show the percent chance of each hazard near you. For tornadoes, 2% or 5% is a real threat and 10%+ is significant; for wind and hail the percentages run higher. A hatched overlay marks where significant severe weather — EF2+ tornadoes, 75+ mph wind, or 2"+ hail — is possible.

Other forecast sources

The SPC is the authoritative US source, but these are worth watching alongside it:

Nadocast → A machine-learning tornado probability forecast for the US, built by Jim Koutavas. A useful second opinion on tornado risk, updated a few times a day. Environment Canada TSO → Experimental thunderstorm-outlook products from Environment and Climate Change Canada — severe-weather guidance for Canadian provinces. SPC Outlook page → The full Storm Prediction Center outlook page, including the forecaster discussions that explain the reasoning behind each day's risk.

This is not an official warning source. Maps are embedded live from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center for information only and may lag the latest update. During active weather, always follow your local National Weather Service office, a NOAA Weather Radio, and Wireless Emergency Alerts. A tornado warning means take shelter now.

Your local tornado risk · Watch vs warning · Tornado safety guide · Reading warning polygons

Today's Severe Weather Forecast