Tornado risk calculator
Enter where you live, what kind of home you live in, and whether you have a storm shelter. Get real actuarial estimates of your odds of being killed, injured, or losing property to a tornado — over the next year, decade, or lifetime.
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How this calculator works: The base death rate uses 30-year NOAA Storm Events data (1993–2023) for each US state divided by 30-year average state population. Home type multiplier reflects NWS studies showing mobile home residents die at ~15× the rate of site-built residents. Shelter multipliers reflect empirical research on storm-shelter mortality reduction (about 6× lower risk with a certified safe room, 3× lower with a basement). Warning system multipliers reflect research on nighttime and warning-compliance mortality.
These are population-average estimates for planning and awareness — they don't guarantee any individual outcome. A single direct EF5 hit can override any statistical protection. See our safety checklist, home hardening guide, and shelter buying guide for the actions that actually reduce these numbers in your case.
Related: Tornado climatology by state · Fatality statistics · Mobile home safety · Alley vs Dixie Alley