Season outlook
2026 tornado chase season
What to expect for the 2026 US tornado season. Climate signals, past patterns, and what chasers are watching.
The ENSO state
- Late 2025 into 2026: neutral to weak La Niña conditions.
- Historical pattern: neutral years produce variable tornado activity.
- La Niña years often shift activity slightly eastward.
- Strong El Niño typically means fewer Atlantic hurricanes but complicated tornado outcomes.
- Actual season depends on many factors beyond ENSO.
The 2011 comparison year
- Look for similar setups.
- 2011 Super Outbreak occurred in La Niña.
- Not deterministic but pattern relevant.
- Modern forecasting increasingly integrates.
- Historical analog matching.
The specific chase corridor forecast
Great Plains
Standard chase corridor. Active.
Deep South (Dixie Alley)
Fall + winter active if pattern holds.
Ohio Valley
Secondary.
Northern Plains
Late season.
High Plains
Landspouts summer.
Southeast
Coastal spawn potential.
The seasonal timing
March-April
Season starts. Southern activity.
May
Peak. Central and northern Plains.
June
Northern Plains + high Plains.
July
Cool down. Northern.
August
Rare. Isolated.
September-November
Fall secondary peak Deep South.
Winter
Dixie Alley active potential.
The specific things to watch
- Gulf of Mexico SSTs — controlling moisture.
- Jet stream position — controlling steering.
- Snow cover extent — affects cold air source.
- Drought progression — affects surface energy.
- Model consensus 5-7 days out.
- Regional pattern establishment.
- Historical analog check.
SPC outlook interpretation
- SPC Day 8 outlook — probabilistic.
- Convective Outlook Day 1-3 daily.
- Watch for pattern recognition of severe episodes.
- April active period historically.
- May outbreak potential.
- Cyclic patterns of storm complexes.
- Multi-day setups.
Chase corridor targeting
Norman OK area
Central chase HQ. Multiple targeting options.
Amarillo TX area
Dryline chasers.
Wichita KS area
Central Plains chasers.
Woodward OK area
NW OK chasers.
Salina KS area
Central KS.
Sioux Falls SD area
Northern.
Denver CO area
High Plains.
The specific gear check for 2026
- Vehicle serviced.
- Fuel range extended.
- Radar app subscription renewed.
- Cell booster tested.
- Camera batteries fresh.
- Drone regulations current (2026 rule changes possible).
- Ham radio license current.
- Storm shelter accessible.
- Insurance coverage verified.
- Emergency kit updated.
Educational and community events
ChaserCon Denver
February typically.
Skywarn refresher training
Winter/spring.
AMS Annual Meeting
Winter.
University chase groups
Spring meetings.
Local NWS coffee hours
Various.
Chase kickoff events
March-April.
The Warn-on-Forecast readiness
- 2026: WoFS operational in some domains.
- Chase implications: better nowcasting.
- Improved rapid tornado prediction.
- Model consumption changes.
- Chaser adaptation to new products.
- AI-augmented forecasting.
- Public safety improvements.
Climate change context
- 2026 within warmer climate baseline.
- Ocean temperatures warmer.
- Extreme events historically frequent.
- Fire season overlap with tornado season.
- Hurricane season active.
- Multi-hazard preparedness.
For new chasers this year
- Complete Skywarn training.
- Get ham radio license.
- Vehicle setup basics.
- Photography practice.
- Chase log system.
- Consider tour first year.
- Community connection.
- Safety first mentality.
For experienced chasers
- Season strategy planning.
- Team coordination.
- Gear investment.
- Business planning if commercial.
- Mental health support network.
- Physical training.
- Retirement planning if applicable.
- Mentor newcomers.
The wildcards
- Volcanic eruption impact (post-Tonga still fading).
- Solar cycle 25 peak effects.
- Individual pattern anomalies.
- Unpredicted events.
- Health/personal changes.
- Season-ending outbreak potential.
- Political / economic impacts on chase.
Final planning notes
- Chase season starts before you know it.
- Preparation reduces stress.
- Community matters.
- Safety first, spectacle second.
- Photography ethical.
- Documentation for science.
- Enjoy the chase.
- Come home safe.