Forecast history
Famous forecast failures
Forecasting is uncertain. Sometimes it fails spectacularly. Here are 10 famous busts and what they taught the field.
1900 Galveston Hurricane
- Weather Bureau discounted early Cuban warnings.
- Chief Isaac Cline downplayed hurricane risk.
- 6,000-12,000 dead — deadliest US disaster ever.
- Lesson: Trust ground-truth reports, respect Cuban meteorology.
- Cline lost family in the storm.
- His career survived but changed him.
- Storm center formation from this event.
1938 New England Hurricane
- Weather Bureau missed hurricane track entirely.
- Predicted to curve out to sea.
- Instead: direct hit on Long Island and New England.
- 682 dead.
- Lesson: Hurricane tracking needed better upper-air data.
- Led to weather balloon expansion.
- Improved hurricane forecasting funding.
1954 Great Britain Storm
- Met Office missed severe storm.
- Ferry passengers stranded.
- Public criticism.
- Lesson: Radio-sonde network insufficient.
- Investment in North Sea observations.
1993 Storm of the Century
- Actually WELL-forecast in advance.
- But Georgia and Florida governor discounted it.
- Storm proved everyone right who feared it.
- Lesson: Even good forecasts get discounted.
- Political meteorology became a term.
1995 Hurricane Opal
- Rapid intensification underforecast.
- Landed as Cat 3 vs forecast Cat 1.
- Panama City barely evacuated.
- Lesson: Rapid intensification remains hard problem.
2005 Hurricane Katrina — the storm-surge miss
- Track and landfall well forecast.
- Levee failure not forecast.
- Post-storm surge miscommunication.
- Lesson: Integrating hydrologic modeling with meteorology.
- National Water Center established.
2012 Superstorm Sandy
- ECMWF nailed 5-day track.
- GFS missed for days.
- Delayed NYC preparation.
- Lesson: US models needed European-level accuracy.
- NGGPS program funded to catch up.
- Modern GFS much improved.
2015 Boston blizzard
- Late-season blizzard cancellation of major storm.
- Local meteorologists divided.
- Coastal storm shifted 40 miles.
- Lesson: Coastal storm tracks are hard.
- Ensemble spread should be communicated.
2016 Hurricane Matthew intensity miss
- Peak intensity underforecast.
- Landfall track uncertain until last day.
- Georgia, South Carolina uncertain.
- Lesson: Intensity forecasting lags track.
- Improved HAFS model.
2018 Hurricane Michael intensity
- Cat 3 forecast at landfall.
- Actually Cat 5 at landfall.
- Mexico Beach FL destroyed.
- Lesson: Rapid intensification remains the frontier problem.
- Investment in inner-core research.
2019 Hurricane Dorian tracking
- Track shifted repeatedly.
- Bahamas devastated at unforecast intensity.
- US East Coast uncertain for days.
- Sharpiegate — presidential intervention on forecast.
- Lesson: Political meteorology has serious consequences.
- Public trust concerns.
2021 Winter Storm Uri
- Cold outbreak forecast.
- Extent and duration underforecast.
- Texas grid failure not integrated.
- 246 dead.
- Lesson: Extreme events need cross-sector integration.
- Cold-air outbreak forecasting is improving.
2022 Hurricane Ian
- Track shifted late.
- Cat 5 rapid intensification.
- Fort Myers uncertainty caused evacuation confusion.
- Lesson: Landfall uncertainty planning.
- Continued RI focus.
What has changed
- Better upper-air data.
- Better satellite coverage.
- Better ensembles.
- AI models.
- Multi-model consensus practice.
- Impact-Based Warning philosophy.
- Improved public communication.
- Political meteorology awareness.
- International model sharing.
- Rapid intensification research.
The universal lessons
- Forecast has real uncertainty.
- Communicate uncertainty explicitly.
- Trust ground truth.
- Multiple models = better forecast.
- Political pressure warps forecasting.
- Emergency managers need multi-source data.
- Public education matters.
- Even excellent forecasts get ignored.
- Sometimes the atmosphere just wins.