Winter 2026–27 U.S. Outlook: What NOAA Is Forecasting
A regional reading of NOAA's October 2026 winter outlook, including El Niño, temperature and precipitation odds, drought, and forecast limits.
Published 2026-10-17; based on outlooks available October 17, 2026.
Read the national 2026–27 winter outlook for the full regional context.
The October 15 forecast
NOAA's winter outlook covers the three-month December–February average. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest through parts of the Midwest and much of the East, with Alaska also tilted warm. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, have a near-normal temperature category favored; Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances among the three temperature categories.
The precipitation map leans wet across the southern tier and East Coast. Parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes lean dry, while the northern Plains, Ohio Valley, and much of the Intermountain West have no favored precipitation category. These are regional probabilities against a historical baseline, not a promise that every town in a colored area will follow the same pattern.
Why El Niño matters this time
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported a strengthening El Niño in October and high odds that a strong event would persist into early 2027. A southward and eastward shift in the jet stream can favor a more active southern storm corridor. The placement of each actual storm will still depend on shorter-lived atmospheric patterns.
The same seasonal signal can produce different local outcomes: rain at low elevations, mountain snow, ice near a freezing line, or a missed storm entirely. A wet winter outlook is not a snowfall outlook, and a warm winter average does not rule out a dangerous cold week.
How to use this outlook
Treat the October outlook as a planning backdrop. Review flood exposure where the wet signal is strongest, prepare for winter travel even in warm-leaning regions, and watch NOAA's monthly updates as the season approaches. For a specific event, switch to your local National Weather Service office and its short-range snow, ice, and rain probabilities.
NOAA's drought outlook through January favors improvement across much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast, but worsening or new drought in parts of the northern Rockies and inland Northwest. Drought can change through the winter, so monitor the updated maps rather than carrying one October snapshot through February.
Sources and live forecast tools
Seasonal outlooks describe probabilities for three-month averages. For immediate safety decisions, follow local National Weather Service forecasts and warnings.